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English How reliable are the calculations?
A model is only useful for important budget decisions when it is clear which data it uses, what it tries to estimate and how its quality is tested. Datafy combines customer journey analysis with econometric modelling of the total media mix.
How the model calculates and how it is tested
Two perspectives on the same marketing effect
Detailed customer journey data can give insight into the route to conversion. Econometric analysis of aggregated data can help assess effects over longer periods and under external market conditions. Both have limitations. That is exactly why results should not be combined uncritically.
Testing on data the model has not seen
A model that explains historical data well does not automatically forecast the future well. Meaningful validation therefore also assesses performance on periods that were not used to build the model, and compares new forecasts with actual results.
Put assumptions and uncertainty on the table
A forecast always has a margin of uncertainty.